Where are things with Pac-12 expansion?

It has been over a month since Utah State officially accepted an invite to join the Pac-12 Conference. That move, which followed in the wake of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State leaving the Mountain West Conference, put Pac-12 membership at seven schools that sponsor college football — Oregon State, Washington State and the five aforementioned MW schools.
Twenty-plus days ago, on Oct. 1, Gonzaga also joined the remade league, bringing total Pac-12 membership to eight universities, though another football sponsoring school was — and is still — needed if the Pac-12 is to be a viable FBS conference going forward.
So where do things stand with Pac-12 expansion now?
Rumors have been floating for weeks now about potential additions. Memphis has been thrown around a lot, even after the Tigers rejected initial overtures to join the conference.
Tulane and USF are in a similar boat as Memphis as important members of the American Athletic Conference (AAC), considered the top conference at the Group of Five level.
There have also been suggestions that Texas State is in the running after it turned down an invite to join the Mountain West to remain in the Sun Belt Conference.
And Sacramento State famously is trying to do anything and everything it can to make the leap from the FCS level — the Big Sky Conference specifically — in order to join the Pac-12.
Until an official addition is confirmed, those and other schools will continued to be bandied about as possible adds, along with basketball schools such as Saint Mary’s and Grand Canyon, though according to reports Tuesday, Grand Canyon is currently being pursued by the MW.
There is a lot of guesswork going on currently, as everyone understands that the Pac-12 still needs to expand. What is confirmed in regards to Pac-12 expansion, per multiple reports, including John Canzano and CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd, is that the Pac-12 is moving forward with media rights consulting firm Octagon.
The Pac-12 does not currently have a media rights deal, and securing one of is utmost importance to membership. Without one, the new-look league will fall apart before a resurgent Pac-12 is even a thing.
Per Canzano, Octagon has helped both the Atlantic 10 and Coastal Athletic Association secure new media rights deals specific to college basketball in recent years and is a highly respected firm in the media rights space.
Dodd reported that the first order of business though, before securing any media deal, will be the addition of an eighth football member.
“Next step, getting an 8th team, then getting a deal,” Dodd wrote on X.
Others, such as Canzano, believe the Pac-12 can use a new media rights deal — or the legitimate promise of one — to lure additional schools to join the league, maybe some that were reticent to join at first, such as Memphis, Tulane or USF.
Per Jim Williams of Rant Sports, Octagon is likely to approach many media entities about the Pac-12, including ESPN, FOX, CBS, the CW and Warner Brothers Discovery Sports (TBS, TNT, truTV), plus streaming platforms such as Apple TV, Prime Video and YouTube.
Williams projects a new media rights deal could pay Pac-12 schools anywhere from $10 million to $15 million a year. By way of comparison, MW schools currently get between $5 and $7 million per season.
Per Canzano, the addition of Gonzaga would be a major reason why the Pac-12 could garner such a deal. The addition of the Bulldogs changed the narrative surrounding the league, Canzano said.
“Did anyone else notice the shift in the public narrative after Gonzaga was added to the Pac-12? The addition of that brand changed the conversation,” Canzano wrote.
“Zags coach Mark Few told me last week it was part of the pitch Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould made when she flew to Spokane and met with him. Said Few: “It’s not always just adding a certain (big) market or adding football in some instances. Maybe it’s changing the momentum and changing the narrative, which then flips some other people.”
It may not be who people expect either, Canzano added. Media partners, whomever they will be for the Pac-12, will ultimately decide which schools add value to the league and which don’t.
All of which is to say, don’t expect further expansion to happen anytime soon for the Pac-12, even though the wheels of expansion are once again moving.